Revisiting the Emergency Department.

This essay describes the author's first time in an emergency department since accompanying his mother for neurologic evaluation.

Association of Smoking Cessation and Cardiovascular, Cancer, and Respiratory Mortality.

This study examines the association between years since quitting smoking and mortality in the US from 1997 to 2018.

Assessing the impact of community-based interventions on hypertension and diabetes management in three Minnesota communities: Findings from the prospective evaluation of US HealthRise programs.

BACKGROUND: Community-based health interventions are increasingly viewed as models of care that can bridge healthcare gaps experienced by underserved communities in the United States (US). With this study, we sought to assess the impact of such interventions, as implemented through the US HealthRise program, on hypertension and diabetes among underserved communities in Hennepin, Ramsey, and Rice Counties, Minnesota. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HealthRise patient data from June 2016 to October 2018 were assessed relative to comparison patients in a difference-in-difference analysis, quantifying program impact on reducing systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hemoglobin A1c, as well as meeting clinical targets (< 140 mmHg for hypertension, < 8% Al1c for diabetes), beyond routine care. For hypertension, HealthRise participation was associated with SBP reductions in Rice (6.9 mmHg [95% confidence interval: 0.9-12.9]) and higher clinical target achievement in Hennepin (27.3 percentage-points [9.8-44.9]) and Rice (17.1 percentage-points [0.9 to 33.3]). For diabetes, HealthRise was associated with A1c decreases in Ramsey (1.3 [0.4-2.2]). Qualitative data showed the value of home visits alongside clinic-based services; however, challenges remained, including community health worker retention and program sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: HealthRise participation had positive effects on improving hypertension and diabetes outcomes at some sites. While community-based health programs can help bridge healthcare gaps, they alone cannot fully address structural inequalities experienced by many underserved communities.

Mortality by Education Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, U.S., 2017-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality disparities by SES, including education, have steadily increased in the U.S. over the past decades. This study examined whether these disparities overall and for 7 major causes of death were exacerbated in 2020, coincident with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Using data on 7,123,254 U.S. deaths from 2017 to 2020, age-standardized death rates and mortality rate differences per 100,000 population and rate ratios comparing least with most educated were calculated by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: All-cause death rates were approximately 2 times higher among adults with least than among those with most education. Disparities in all-cause mortality by educational attainment slightly increased from 2017 (rate ratio=1.97; 95% CI=1.95, 1.98; rate difference=739.9) to 2019 (rate ratio=2.04; 95% CI=2.03, 2.06; rate difference=761.3) and then greatly increased in 2020 overall (rate ratio=2.32; 95% CI=2.30, 2.33; rate difference=1,042.9) and when excluding COVID-19 deaths (rate ratio=2.27; 95% CI=2.25, 2.28; rate difference=912.3). Similar patterns occurred across race/ethnicity and sex, although Hispanic individuals had the greatest relative increase in disparities for all-cause mortality from 2019 (rate ratio=1.47; 95% CI=1.43, 1.51; rate difference=282.4) to 2020 overall (rate ratio=2.00; 95% CI=1.94, 2.06; rate difference=652.3) and when excluding COVID-19 deaths (rate ratio=1.84; 95% CI=1.79, 1.90; rate difference=458.7). Disparities in cause-specific mortality by education were generally stable from 2017 to 2019, followed by a considerable increase from 2019 to 2020 for heart disease, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, and unintentional injury. Among these causes of death, the relative increase in rate ratio from 2019 to 2020 was greatest for unintentional injury (24.8%; from 3.41 [95% CI=3.23, 3.60] to 4.26 [95% CI=3.99, 4.53]). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality disparities by education widened in the U.S. in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research is warranted to understand the reasons for these widened disparities.

Association Between Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Sex Among US Adults.

Importance: Patterns of cigarette smoking and smoking cessation vary considerably across demographic groups in the US, but there is limited evidence on whether the hazards of smoking and benefits of quitting vary across these groups. Population-specific evidence on the benefits of quitting smoking may motivate cessation among groups historically underrepresented in medical research. Objective: To quantify the association between smoking, smoking cessation, and mortality by race, ethnicity, and sex. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationally representative, prospective cohort study used data from the US National Health Interview Survey collected via questionnaire between January 1997 and December 2018 among adults aged 25 to 84 years at recruitment. Participants were followed up for cause-specific mortality through December 31, 2019. Exposures: Self-reported smoking status at recruitment, age at quitting smoking, and years since quitting smoking. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were all-cause mortality and mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and lower respiratory disease. Adjusted mortality rate ratios comparing never, former, and current smokers were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Weighted analyses were conducted by race, ethnicity, and sex as reported by participants. Results: Among the 551 388 participants in the main analyses, the mean (SD) age at recruitment was 48.9 (15.3) years; 307 601 (55.8%) were women, 87 207 (15.8%) were Hispanic, 75 545 (13.7%) were non-Hispanic Black, 355 782 (64.5%) were non-Hispanic White, and 32 854 (6.0%) identified as other non-Hispanic race and ethnicity. There were 74 870 deaths among participants aged 25 to 89 years during follow-up (36 792 [49.1%] among men; 38 078 [50.9%] among women). The all-cause mortality rate ratio (RR) for current vs never smoking was 2.80 (95% CI, 2.73-2.88) overall. The RRs were similar by sex but varied by race and ethnicity: Hispanic, 2.01 (95% CI, 1.84-2.18); non-Hispanic Black, 2.19 (95% CI, 2.06-2.33); non-Hispanic White, 3.00 (95% CI, 2.91-3.10); and other non-Hispanic race and ethnicity, 2.16 (95% CI, 1.88-2.47). When comparing those who quit smoking before age 45 years with never smokers, all-cause mortality RRs were 1.15 (95% CI, 1.03-1.28) among Hispanic individuals, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.07-1.25) among non-Hispanic Black individuals, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.15) among non-Hispanic White individuals, and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.99-1.39) among other non-Hispanic individuals. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prospective cohort study, among men and women from diverse racial and ethnic groups, current smoking was associated with at least twice the all-cause mortality rate of never smoking. Quitting smoking, particularly at younger ages, was associated with substantial reductions in the relative excess mortality associated with continued smoking.

External validation of models for predicting risk of colorectal cancer using the China Kadoorie Biobank.

BACKGROUND: In China, colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality have been steadily increasing over the last decades. Risk models to predict incident CRC have been developed in various populations, but they have not been systematically externally validated in a Chinese population.  This study aimed to assess the performance of risk scores in predicting CRC using the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), one of the largest and geographically diverse prospective cohort studies in China. METHODS: Nine models were externally validated in 512,415 participants in CKB and included 2976 cases of CRC. Model discrimination was assessed, overall and by sex, age, site, and geographic location, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model discrimination of these nine models was compared to a model using age alone. Calibration was assessed for five models, and they were re-calibrated in CKB. RESULTS: The three models with the highest discrimination (Ma (Cox model) AUC 0.70 [95% CI 0.69-0.71]; Aleksandrova 0.70 [0.69-0.71]; Hong 0.69 [0.67-0.71]) included the variables age, smoking, and alcohol. These models performed significantly better than using a model based on age alone (AUC of 0.65 [95% CI 0.64-0.66]). Model discrimination was generally higher in younger participants, males, urban environments, and for colon cancer. The two models (Guo and Chen) developed in Chinese populations did not perform better than the others. Among the 10% of participants with the highest risk, the three best performing models identified 24-26% of participants that went on to develop CRC. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk models based on easily obtainable demographic and modifiable lifestyle factor have good discrimination in a Chinese population. The three best performing models have a higher discrimination than using a model based on age alone.

Person-years of life lost and lost earnings from cigarette smoking-attributable cancer deaths, United States, 2019.

State-specific information on lost earnings due to smoking-attributable cancer deaths to inform and advocate for tobacco control policies is lacking. We estimated person-years of life lost (PYLL) and lost earnings due to cigarette smoking-attributable cancer deaths in the United States nationally and by state. Proportions and numbers of cigarette smoking-attributable cancer deaths and associated PYLL among individuals aged 25 to 79 years in 2019 were calculated and combined with annual median earnings to estimate lost earnings attributable to cigarette smoking. In 2019, estimated total PYLL and lost earnings associated with cigarette smoking-attributable cancer deaths in ages 25 to 79 years in the United States were 2 188 195 (95% CI, 2 148 707-2 231 538) PYLL and $20.9 billion ($20.0 billion-$21.7 billion), respectively. States with the highest overall age-standardized PYLL and lost earning rates generally were in the South and Midwest. The estimated rate per 100 000 population ranged from 352 (339-366) in Utah to 1337 (1310-1367) in West Virginia for PYLL and from $4.3 million ($3.5 million-$5.2 million) in Idaho to $14.8 million ($10.6 million-$20.7 million) in Missouri for lost earnings. If age-specific PYLL and lost earning rates in Utah had been achieved by all states, 58.2% (57.0%-59.5%) of the estimated total PYLL (1 274 178; 1 242 218-1 306 685 PYLL) and 50.5% (34.2%-62.4%) of lost earnings ($10.5 billion; $7.1 billion-$13.1 billion) in 2019 nationally would have been avoided. Lost earnings due to smoking-attributable cancer deaths are substantial in the United States and are highest in states with weaker tobacco control policies.

American Cancer Society's report on the status of cancer disparities in the United States, 2021.

In this report, the authors provide comprehensive and up-to-date US data on disparities in cancer occurrence, major risk factors, and access to and utilization of preventive measures and screening by sociodemographic characteristics. They also review programs and resources that have reduced cancer disparities and provide policy recommendations to further mitigate these inequalities. The overall cancer death rate is 19% higher among Black males than among White males. Black females also have a 12% higher overall cancer death rate than their White counterparts despite having an 8% lower incidence rate. There are also substantial variations in death rates for specific cancer types and in stage at diagnosis, survival, exposure to risk factors, and receipt of preventive measures and screening by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geographic location. For example, kidney cancer death rates by sex among American Indian/Alaska Native people are ≥64% higher than the corresponding rates in each of the other racial/ethnic groups, and the 5-year relative survival for all cancers combined is 14% lower among residents of poorer counties than among residents of more affluent counties. Broad and equitable implementation of evidence-based interventions, such as increasing health insurance coverage through Medicaid expansion or other initiatives, could substantially reduce cancer disparities. However, progress will require not only equitable local, state, and federal policies but also broad interdisciplinary engagement to elevate and address fundamental social inequities and longstanding systemic racism.

Association between disparities in intergenerational economic mobility and cause-specific mortality among Black and White persons in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about the association between structural racism and mortality in the United States is limited. We examined the association between ongoing structural racism, measured as inequalities in adulthood income between White and Black children with similar parental household income (economic mobility gap) in a recent birth cohort, and Black-White disparities in death rates (mortality gap) overall and for major causes. METHODS: Sex-, race/ethnicity-, and county-specific data were used to examine sex-specific associations between economic mobility and mortality gaps for all causes combined, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), injury/violence, all malignant cancers, and 14 cancer types. Economic mobility data for 1978-1983 birth cohorts and death rates during 2011-2018 were obtained from the Opportunity Atlas and National Center for Health Statistics, respectively. Data from 471 counties were included in analyses of all-cause mortality at ages 30-39 years during 2011-2018 (corresponding to partially overlapping 1978-1983 birth cohorts); and from 1,572 and 1,248 counties in analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in all ages combined, respectively. RESULTS: In ages 30-39 years, a one percentile increase in the economic mobility gap was associated with a 6.8 % (95 % confidence interval 1.8 %-11.8 %) increase in the Black-White mortality gap among males and a 13.5 % (8.9 %-18.1 %) increase among females, based on data from 471 counties. In all ages combined, the corresponding percentages based on data from 1,572 counties were 10.2 % (7.2 %-13.2 %) among males and 14.8 % (11.4 %-18.2 %) among females, equivalent to an increase of 18.4 and 14.0 deaths per 100,000 in the mortality gap, respectively. Similarly, strong associations between economic mobility gap and mortality gap in all ages were found for major causes of death, notably for potentially preventable conditions, including COPD, injury/violence, and cancers of the lung, liver, and cervix. CONCLUSIONS: Economic mobility gap conditional on parental income in a recent birth cohort as a marker of ongoing structural racism is strongly associated with Black-White disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from several causes.

Evaluating clinical characteristics studies produced early in the Covid-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical characterisation studies have been essential in helping inform research, diagnosis and clinical management efforts, particularly early in a pandemic. This systematic review summarises the early literature on clinical characteristics of patients admitted to hospital, and evaluates the quality of evidence produced during the initial stages of the pandemic. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health databases were searched for studies published from January 1st 2020 to April 28th 2020. Studies which reported on at least 100 hospitalised patients with Covid-19 of any age were included. Data on clinical characteristics were independently extracted by two review authors. Study design specific critical appraisal tools were used to evaluate included studies: the Newcastle Ottawa scale for cohort and cross sectional studies, Joanna Briggs Institute checklist for case series and the Cochrane collaboration tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. RESULTS: The search yielded 78 studies presenting data on 77,443 people. Most studies (82%) were conducted in China. No studies included patients from low- and middle-income countries. The overall quality of included studies was low to moderate, and the majority of studies did not include a control group. Fever and cough were the most commonly reported symptoms early in the pandemic. Laboratory and imaging findings were diverse with lymphocytopenia and ground glass opacities the most common findings respectively. Clinical data in children and vulnerable populations were limited. CONCLUSIONS: The early Covid-19 literature had moderate to high risk of bias and presented several methodological issues. Early clinical characterisation studies should aim to include different at-risk populations, including patients in non-hospital settings. Pandemic preparedness requires collection tools to ensure observational studies are methodologically robust and will help produce high-quality data early on in the pandemic to guide clinical practice and public health policy. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Available at https://osf.io/mpafn.

Alcohol consumption and cause-specific mortality in Cuba: prospective study of 120 623 adults.

BACKGROUND: The associations of cause-specific mortality with alcohol consumption have been studied mainly in higher-income countries. We relate alcohol consumption to mortality in Cuba. METHODS: In 1996-2002, 146 556 adults were recruited into a prospective study from the general population in five areas of Cuba. Participants were interviewed, measured and followed up by electronic linkage to national death registries until January 1, 2017. After excluding all with missing data or chronic disease at recruitment, Cox regression (adjusted for age, sex, province, education, and smoking) was used to relate mortality rate ratios (RRs) at ages 35-79 years to alcohol consumption. RRs were corrected for long-term variability in alcohol consumption using repeat measures among 20 593 participants resurveyed in 2006-08. FINDINGS: After exclusions, there were 120 623 participants aged 35-79 years (mean age 52 [SD 12]; 67 694 [56%] women). At recruitment, 22 670 (43%) men and 9490 (14%) women were current alcohol drinkers, with 15 433 (29%) men and 3054 (5%) women drinking at least weekly; most alcohol consumption was from rum. All-cause mortality was positively and continuously associated with weekly alcohol consumption: each additional 35cl bottle of rum per week (110g of pure alcohol) was associated with ∼10% higher risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.08 [95%CI 1.05-1.11]). The major causes of excess mortality in weekly drinkers were cancer, vascular disease, and external causes. Non-drinkers had ∼10% higher risk (RR 1.11 [1.09-1.14]) of all-cause mortality than those in the lowest category of weekly alcohol consumption (<1 bottle/week), but this association was almost completely attenuated on exclusion of early follow-up. INTERPRETATION: In this large prospective study in Cuba, weekly alcohol consumption was continuously related to premature mortality. Reverse causality is likely to account for much of the apparent excess risk among non-drinkers. The findings support limits to alcohol consumption that are lower than present recommendations in Cuba. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, CDC Foundation (with support from Amgen).

Low-intensity daily smoking and cause-specific mortality in Mexico: prospective study of 150 000 adults.

BACKGROUND: Research is needed to determine the relevance of low-intensity daily smoking to mortality in countries such as Mexico, where such smoking habits are common. METHODS: Prospective study of 159 755 Mexican adults recruited from 1998-2004 and followed for cause-specific mortality to 1 January 2018. Participants were categorized according to baseline self-reported smoking status. Confounder-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) at ages 35-89 were estimated using Cox regression, after excluding those with previous chronic disease (to avoid reverse causality). RESULTS: Among 42 416 men and 86 735 women aged 35-89 and without previous disease, 18 985 men (45%) and 18 072 women (21%) reported current smoking and 8866 men (21%) and 53 912 women (62%) reported never smoking. Smoking less than daily was common: 33% of male current smokers and 39% of female current smokers. During follow-up, the all-cause mortality RRs associated with the baseline smoking categories of <10 cigarettes per day (average during follow-up 4 per day) or ≥10 cigarettes per day (average during follow-up 10 per day), compared with never smoking, were 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.10-1.25) and 1.54 (1.42-1.67), respectively. RRs were similar irrespective of age or sex. The diseases most strongly associated with daily smoking were respiratory cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and gastrointestinal and vascular diseases. Ex-daily smokers had substantially lower mortality rates than those who were current daily smokers at recruitment. CONCLUSIONS: In this Mexican population, low-intensity daily smoking was associated with increased mortality. Of those smoking 10 cigarettes per day on average, about one-third were killed by their habit. Quitting substantially reduced these risks.

Sex differences in prevalence, treatment and control of cardiovascular risk factors in England.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate sex differences in prevalence, treatment and control of major cardiovascular risk factors in England. METHODS: Data from the Health Survey for England 2012-2017 on non-institutionalised English adults (aged ≥16 years) were used to investigate sex differences in prevalence, treatment and control of major cardiovascular risk factors: body mass index, smoking, systolic blood pressure and hypertension, diabetes, and cholesterol and dyslipidaemia. Physical activity and diet were not assessed in this study. RESULTS: Overall, 49 415 adults (51% women) were included. Sex differences persisted in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, with smoking, hypertension, overweight and dyslipidaemia remaining more common in men than in women in 2017. The proportion of individuals with neither hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes nor smoking increased from 32% to 36% in women and from 28% to 29% in men between 2012 and 2017. Treatment and control of hypertension and diabetes improved over time and were comparable in both sexes in 2017 (66% and 51% for treatment and control of hypertension and 73% and 20% for treatment and control of diabetes). However, women were less likely than men to have treated and controlled dyslipidaemia (21% vs 28% for treatment and 15% vs 24% for control, for women versus men in 2017). CONCLUSIONS: Important sex differences persist in cardiovascular risk factors in England, with an overall higher number of risk factors in men than in women. A combination of public health policy and individually tailored interventions is required to further reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in England.

Community-based interventions for detection and management of diabetes and hypertension in underserved communities: a mixed-methods evaluation in Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA.

INTRODUCTION: As non-communicable disease (NCD) burden rises worldwide, community-based programmes are a promising strategy to bridge gaps in NCD care. The HealthRise programme sought to improve hypertension and diabetes management for underserved communities in nine sites across Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA between 2016 and 2018. This study presents findings from the programme's endline evaluation. METHODS: The evaluation utilises a mixed-methods quasi-experimental design. Process indicators assess programme implementation; quantitative data examine patients' biometric measures and qualitative data characterise programme successes and challenges. Programme impact was assessed using the percentage of patients meeting blood pressure and A1c treatment targets and tracking changes in these measures over time. RESULTS: Almost 60 000 screenings, most of them in India, resulted in 1464 new hypertension and 295 new diabetes cases across sites. In Brazil, patients exhibited statistically significant reductions in blood pressure and A1c. In Shimla, India, and in South Africa, country with the shortest implementation period, there were no differences between patients served by facilities in HealthRise areas relative to comparison areas. Among participating patients with diabetes in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and hypertension patients in Hennepin County, the percentage of HealthRise patients meeting treatment targets at endline was significantly higher relative to comparison group patients. Qualitative analysis identified linking different providers, services, communities and information systems as positive HealthRise attributes. Gaps in health system capacities and sociodemographic factors, including poverty, low levels of health education and limited access to nutritious food, are remaining challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from Brazil and the USA indicate that the HealthRise model has the potential to improve patient outcomes. Short implementation periods and strong emphasis on screening may have contributed to the lack of detectable differences in other sites. Community-based care cannot deliver its full potential if sociodemographic and health system barriers are not addressed in tandem.

Association of childhood smoking and adult mortality: prospective study of 120 000 Cuban adults.

BACKGROUND: The average age at which people start smoking has been decreasing in many countries, but insufficient evidence exists on the adult hazards of having started smoking in childhood and, especially, in early childhood. We aimed to investigate the association between smoking habits (focusing on the age when smokers started) and cause-specific premature mortality in a cohort of adults in Cuba. METHODS: For this prospective study, adults were recruited from five provinces in Cuba. Participants were interviewed (data collected included socioeconomic status, medical history, alcohol consumption, and smoking habits) and had their height, weight, and blood pressure measured. Participants were followed up until Jan 1, 2017 for cause-specific mortality; a subset was resurveyed in 2006-08. We used Cox regression to calculate adjusted rate ratios (RRs) for mortality at ages 30-69 years, comparing never-smokers with current smokers by age they started smoking and number of cigarettes smoked per day and with ex-smokers by the age at which they had quit. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, and Nov 24, 2002, 146 556 adults were recruited into the study, of whom 118 840 participants aged 30-69 years at recruitment contributed to the main analyses. 27 264 (52%) of 52 524 men and 19 313 (29%) of 66 316 women were current smokers. Most participants reported smoking cigarettes; few smoked only cigars. About a third of current cigarette smokers had started before age 15 years. Compared with never-smokers, the all-cause mortality RR was highest in participants who had started smoking at ages 5-9 years (RR 2·51, 95% CI 2·21-2·85), followed by ages 10-14 years (1·83, 1·72-1·95), 15-19 years (1·56, 1·46-1·65), and ages 20 years or older (1·50, 1·39-1·62). Smoking accounted for a quarter of all premature deaths in this population, but quitting before about age 40 years avoided almost all of the excess mortality due to smoking. INTERPRETATION: In this cohort of adults in Cuba, starting to smoke in childhood was common and quitting was not. Starting in childhood approximately doubled the rate of premature death (ie, before age 70 years). If this 2-fold mortality RR continues into old age, about half of participants who start smoking before age 15 years and do not stop will eventually die of complications from their habit. The greatest risks were found among adults who began smoking before age 10 years. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Foundation (with support from Amgen).

Trends in the prevalence of overweight among Bangladeshi children aged 24-59 months (2004-2014) by sex and socioeconomic status.

BACKGROUND: While recent evidence suggests that the overall prevalence of overweight in young children in Bangladesh is low, little is known about variation in trends by sex, socioeconomic status, urbanicity, and region. We investigated the trends in overweight among children aged 24-59 months by these factors, using nationally representative samples from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHS) between 2004 and 2014. METHODS: Data from four BDHS surveys conducted between 2004 and 2014, with valid height and weight measurements of children, were included in this study (n = 15,648). BMI was calculated and the prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was reported using the International Obesity Taskforce (IOTF) classification system. To explore the association between socioeconomic status and childhood overweight, we used multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of overweight among children aged 24-59 months increased from 1.60% (95% CI: 1.20-2.05%) in 2004 to 2.33% (95% CI: 1.82-2.76%) in 2014. Among girls, the overweight trend increased significantly (adjusted odds ratio (OR) comparing 2014 vs. 2004: 2.02 95% CI: 1.52-2.68), whereas among boys the trend remained steady. When compared with households with the poorest wealth index, households with richest wealth index had higher odds of childhood overweight among both boys (OR 2.39, 95% CI: 1.76-3.25) and girls (OR 1.86, 95% CI: 1.35-2.55). Higher household education level was also associated with childhood overweight. Subgroup analyses showed that relative inequalities by these factors increased between 2004 and 2014 when adjusted for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: There is a rising trend in overweight prevalence exclusively among girls aged 24-59 months in Bangladesh. Childhood overweight is associated with higher household education and wealth index, and the relative disparity by these factors appears to be increasing over time. These unmet inequalities should be considered while developing national public health programs and strategies.

The overweight and obesity transition from the wealthy to the poor in low- and middle-income countries: A survey of household data from 103 countries.

BACKGROUND: In high-income countries, obesity prevalence (body mass index greater than or equal to 30 kg/m2) is highest among the poor, while overweight (body mass index greater than or equal to 25 kg/m2) is prevalent across all wealth groups. In contrast, in low-income countries, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is higher among wealthier individuals than among poorer individuals. We characterize the transition of overweight and obesity from wealthier to poorer populations as countries develop, and project the burden of overweight and obesity among the poor for 103 countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our sample used 182 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Health Surveys (n = 2.24 million respondents) from 1995 to 2016. We created a standard wealth index using household assets common among all surveys and linked national wealth by country and year identifiers. We then estimated the changing probability of overweight and obesity across every wealth decile as countries' per capita gross domestic product (GDP) rises using logistic and linear fixed-effect regression models. We found that obesity rates among the wealthiest decile were relatively stable with increasing national wealth, and the changing gradient was largely due to increasing obesity prevalence among poorer populations (3.5% [95% uncertainty interval: 0.0%-8.3%] to 14.3% [9.7%-19.0%]). Overweight prevalence among the richest (45.0% [35.6%-54.4%]) and the poorest (45.5% [35.9%-55.0%]) were roughly equal in high-income settings. At $8,000 GDP per capita, the adjusted probability of being obese was no longer highest in the richest decile, and the same was true of overweight at $10,000. Above $25,000, individuals in the richest decile were less likely than those in the poorest decile to be obese, and the same was true of overweight at $50,000. We then projected overweight and obesity rates by wealth decile to 2040 for all countries to quantify the expected rise in prevalence in the relatively poor. Our projections indicated that, if past trends continued, the number of people who are poor and overweight will increase in our study countries by a median 84.4% (range 3.54%-383.4%), most prominently in low-income countries. The main limitations of this study included the inclusion of cross-sectional, self-reported data, possible reverse causality of overweight and obesity on wealth, and the lack of physical activity and food price data. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that as countries develop economically, overweight prevalence increased substantially among the poorest and stayed mostly unchanged among the wealthiest. The relative poor in upper- and lower-middle income countries may have the greatest burden, indicating important planning and targeting needs for national health programs.